Posts Tagged ‘dot-com 3.0’

Dot-Com 3.0 Collapse Picks Up Speed As Twitter Burns

Tuesday, March 21st, 2017

Watching negative contributors burn provides the only realistic pleasure in a time when most things are corrupt. As noted here before, Dot-Com 3.0 is going bust because its advertising model prioritizes true believers who use the net a lot but are not large financial contributors to the economy, thus its advertising is declining in value.

Currently, Twitter is on the chopping block because in an effort to appeal to true believers, it has sacrificed the more interesting parts of its userbase:

The company shut down a total of 376,890 accounts in the last six months of 2016, Twitter said in its latest transparency report.

In doing so, it has pared down its constituents to include a group that may be artificially inflated by a large number of spam bots, upon which the service has based its user figures and the presumed value of its (flailing) advertising:

Twitter was last week hit by a report from professors at the University of Southern California and the University of Indiana that estimated that as many as 15% of the social media site’s 319m users were not human. That is nearly twice the company’s own estimate that up to 8.5% of its accounts are managed by “bots”.

The charge is particularly damaging for Twitter because it is already struggling to convince advertisers to return to its platform.

As illusions fall, a void is created into which new(er) media rushes, in particular the voices of individuals. The net may be overcoming the centralized caused by social media, which has not delivered the content or community that people desire. In particular, few trust their dot-com overlords to be anything but conniving, manipulative little Utopians hell-bent on control.

Social media, in response to flagging sales, went after the True Believers who tend to be employed in dead-end positions where they have a lot of time to waste on social media and therefore, represent the bulk of the traffic, despite being a relative minority in the world and having little social, cultural, political or economic influence.

This tendency overstated the importance of groups of these life failures such as SJWs, who seem to be losers in the dating and marriage marketplace as well as in the quest to do something useful with their lives. That in turn through a compliant media gave a boost to these views, but as their insanity emerged, the bulk of normal people fled from them, removing their power.

The upshot is that smaller blogs like this one may have greater importance in the future as people realize that wherever the herd is can be found only lies, and wherever exclusive groups gather, information of actual value is being transacted. The hierarchy of nature restores itself in the vacuum created by the failure of grandiose human designs.

Dot-Com 3.0 Collapse Goes Mainstream

Thursday, January 26th, 2017

As reported here before several times, the third revision of the internet boom is about to collapse because its advertising value is based on warm bodies, not specific customers, and so it is selling ads to debt-strapped cubicle slaves instead of viable consumers.

The industry has finally begun to formally recognize the failure of dot-com 3.0 by noting that advertising is not working, which explains the declining relevance and profitability of social media and other nu-web entities:

“I think the advertising world going forward is going to be filled with fewer, better ads,” Deep Focus CEO Ian Schafer said on the latest episode of Recode Media. “The display advertising market is going to crater. By giving away stuff for free for so long, we’ve created an ad economy that is bigger than it should be,” he added. Schafer says there’s a untapped value in “nonstandard” ads, meaning branded content and other forms of advertising on platforms such as Snapchat, Musical.ly, WeHeartIt and Imgur.

As the advertising industry recognizes that selling ads by the pound through services which appeal to bored workers and other people without power, influence or abilities, it will turn instead toward the bedrock of advertising in America: the (hopefully soon again) prosperous middle class. Social media, blog and video advertising is great for capturing bored office workers but useless for selling anything bigger than mugs and tshirts.

In the bigger picture, the dot-com 3.0 crash shows us the economic pitfalls of transition from a Leftist demand-based economy to a Rightist supply-based one: the Leftist method increases demand for currency, inflating it but creating phantom value, and return to a supply-side approach then forces a recalculation of value based on production, at which point all the ephemeral wealth disappears.

Trump is managing this process by carefully introducing economy boosters for every change he makes that subtracts away false economy, including cheap immigrant labor and federal hiring, so that the transition is gradual. While most are crowing over the Dow hitting 20,000 today, what this may signal is the market re-organization in anticipation of some rocky thresholds on the way back to production-based money.

Dot-Com 3.0 Crash Gains Momentum

Tuesday, January 10th, 2017

As the ad revenues fall because people realize that a dot-com 3.0 collapse is coming because the advertising numbers are fake and the customers not buyers, the industry is waking up and taking notice of the grim fact that the internet industry is moribund and will soon fall as the markets devalue fake assets:

There’s a peculiar tone emanating from the social media space. It’s a little hard to hear, but if you listen closely, it’s there none the less. That sound is the sudden gasp of realization that the most dominating reasoning and defense that encompassed the entire social media space may in fact being laid-to-waste right before their screens. That horror?

The eyeballs for ads model doesn’t work.

…A 300% increase in readership didn’t mean squat to paying advertisers because – all they were getting was the bill for more “ad sales” and no sales. So they in-turn are now stating: Thanks, but no thanks.

The “ads for eyeballs” model reveals the core weakness of capitalism: it can be captured by commerce itself through the idea of consumerism, which is that it does not matter who the consumers are so long as there are enough of them. If a company needs 5% of the market to survive, under this theory, it needs only a certain number of warm bodies.

However, industry is discovering that not all warm bodies are the same. The ideal audience remains the American middle class, who shop carefully for good values and are loyal to brands. The new urban audience of beige people buying trendy products because of a media blitz is not working because their tastes are fickle and their loyalty non-existent. Companies will go to their graves for the mistake of choosing this audience.

In the meantime, the businesses that thrive are as always those who hit that sweet spot with the valued consumers, which means that who matters more than raw numbers. As in philosophy and politics, a wave of realization is hitting the West that “equality” is a denial of reality and will lead to our doom.

Dot-Com 3.0 Collapse Inbound

Sunday, January 8th, 2017

More signs that the dot-com people who we are supposed to respect as “geniuses” are in fact drudges who got lucky: Google’s new big news is a minivan and virtual reality continues to bore everyone except the nerds.

Silicon Valley has forgotten how to add utility to its products. Self-driving cars are great for avoiding both tiresome commutes and the types of people we find on public transportation. Otherwise, no one really cares. VR is great if you use it as a way to create a virtual office so we can all stay at home and avoid society. Both of these are not “fun” technologies, but mitigations of social problems caused by decline.

Even more, they are pathetic. Minivans are a symbol of how boring America was in the 1990s, and the apparent nostalgia that Google has for them is creepy at best. Virtual Reality is like the satire of every geek in history: living in a world of tedious details, fascinated by the obvious, and yet missing the bigger picture.

The lack of immediate utility to either of them suggests that Silicon Valley remains out of ideas, vision and realistic thinking and so will soon make a large flushing sound and leave a lingering smell of digestion.

America 2016: Where Everything Is Fake

Sunday, September 25th, 2016

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The West has fallen apart. For years, possibly even centuries, this fact has been hidden by compliant “intellectuals” who distract, deflect and conceal whenever cracks appear in the façade of our Potemkin village.

Since The Renaissance™ and The Enlightenment™, it has been common for truthful thinkers to die paupers and be resurrected only later, slowly and with much resistance.

For some time the balancing factor of the many genetically- and morally-good people in the West has kept the decay at bay, which ironically, has made the infection stronger. With the demographic change starting in the 1970s, this balance began to slip.

This culminate in 2008 in the election of our least-qualified president ever, Barack Obama, who like Bill Clinton before him was elected mostly to try to make racial problems go away. People wanted an appeaser, because appeasement is always easier than conflict, and the scared media sheep want easy answers.

In doing so however the voters handed the henhouse keys to the fox and then went into eight years of oblivion. As they wake up, they see a ruined world which is nearly covered up by counter-propaganda telling us how good it is and how competent our leaders are.

The most recent sign of the collapse is that not only is our leading presidential candidate lying about how she attempted to hide her emails from oversight, but our president is lying about his own participation in this activity.

In an April 5, 2016 interview with the FBI, Abedin was shown an email exchange between Clinton and Obama, but the longtime Clinton aide did not recognize the name of the sender.

“Once informed that the sender’s name is believed to be a pseudonym used by the president, Abedin exclaimed: ‘How is this not classified?'” the report says. “Abedin then expressed her amazement at the president’s use of a pseudonym and asked if she could have a copy of the email.”

Use of a pseudonym shows not only that he knew the server was designed to hide evidence, but that he wanted to hide his own communications in the same way by using an unofficial (read: unmonitored) address. Contrast this to Obama’s own statements about the scandal, in which he claims not to have known about it until the media broke the story:

President Obama only learned of Hillary Clinton’s private email address use for official State Department business after a New York Times report, he told CBS News in an interview.

Then look toward the proof that Clinton intended to conceal her identity and remove emails when she moved her email to her private server:

Assuming that “Stonetear” was discussing Hillary Clinton’s emails, these finds appear to be the smoking gun in the Clinton email scandal. The posts prove intent to obstruct the production of evidence to Congress, either through deception or deletion, and that these events took place after the evidence was requested. There is no legitimate reason for anyone to act this way if the emails merely contained information about yoga poses and wedding invitations.

Now we know that our democratic leaders are liars who intend to deceive us. This has always been a tendency of democracy, apparently held in check by a steady stream of genetically-qualified leaders in the past, and possibly better quality of political writers and artists.

With the replacement of that group with another, we are getting the dregs of our tribe as candidates and they are being elected by ersatz media, an affirmative action administrative hierarchy, and an electorate which has no better angels to guide it and nothing in common, so lunges for illusions.

This condition is consistent across the West, with the rest of the world following, as we can see when we realize that our leaders have barely any knowledge of what is going on out there.

Heads of state and government representing the world’s largest economies used words like “fear,” “uncertainty,” “risk,” and “terror” 87 percent more often on average than during last year’s gathering, according to an analysis by Adam Tiouririne, a leadership communication adviser at Logos Consulting Group.

The people who are supposed to be leading us are expressing their fears for the future, as if admitting that they cannot control the situation, which for a leader is tantamount to affirming his own incompetence. They watch these problems arise, and either their hands are tied or they have no ability to come up with a plan, so they emote instead of taking action.

They have created a global economy which is itself fake, based on the willingness of others to purchase debt as an asset:

In the U.S. alone, there’s more than $63 trillion in combined public and private debt. In stark contrast, there are only $3.8 trillion total dollars in circulation, and each of these dollars has been lent and borrowed more than 16 times. The amount of leverage continues to climb.

This debt-driven approach mirrors the Clinton years theory, which “worked” because it allowed us to sell houses to those who could not afford them, and by outsourcing our labor to China, lower costs. The problem with that approach is the hangover, which happens when all that fake money cannot perform under duress as well as it did under easy boom markets, so there is a massive crash such as the one we have been living through since 2000 (right after the Clinton 90s ended and when the results of their policies became manifest).

Not only that, but our fake economy is propped up by fake value, namely the internet advertising industry, which has been steadily paying less per ad over the years and has resulted in a web that is coated in advertising, as if the spammers went legit and took over. As predicted here before, the dot-com collapse that is coming will occur because of market recognition that internet advertising is fake and mostly useless for reaching actual customers:

Revelations that Facebook Inc. overestimated by up to 80% the average time people spent watching video ads on its platform shocked the media and marketing world.

Meanwhile, Japanese ad giant Dentsu Inc. admitted on Friday it overcharged at least 111 companies for internet ads. The mea culpa was prompted by a complaint from Toyota Motor Corp. that its internet ads weren’t having the promised impact.

In saner times, we would call this what it is: fraud. Businesses that make false promises that cause other people to experience loss are fraudulent, and schemes which rely on a one-step-removed version of that approach are also fraud, even if no one in our apparently also fake law enforcement apparatus seems to think so.

More importantly however, this means that the basis of our future is also fraudulent. The internet economy is based on false activity, and this fits into a larger pattern of advertising collapse as the consumers who care about the differences between products are replaced by the thoughtless. You cannot have an economy when most people buy randomly.

The future of America seems based on the hope that Google, Amazon, Apple and Twitter can keep selling ads and overhyped products long enough to keep the dot-com “circular Ponzi scheme” going, where we create activity and use that to claim value, and then sell interest in that activity to others. This parallels our monetary debt-selling scheme, which is also fraudulent.

The West has become a fraud. Our presumed value is based on deeds long in the past, our leaders are inept and apathetic, the voters are clueless and every aspect of public life is corrupt and fake. This is somewhat typical of democracy, which requires that complex problems be twisted into easy slogans so the masses — which cannot understand those problems — feel empowered. As a result, everything must be fraudulent. But the bill is coming due.

The coming dot-com 3.0 collapse: Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Twitter

Saturday, January 2nd, 2016

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Our people hang on to one thing above all else: our economy with its technology will save us. This is why we live so long, have such comforts, and are wealthy. They do not want to face the obvious fact that our industry is oversold because it produces little of actual value, and exists on hype value alone.

Like dying civilizations, dying businesses go into a final period where people exist simply to milk the wealth of the past. They started with a useful product, but then the bloat got to them as it does in every human venture. The Crowd simply tears them apart with many demands: public image, hyping stock value, regulations, hiring enough people and making the right political statements. This reveals an inherent flaw in the democratic model from a business standpoint.

As a result, they stop improving their product in vital ways — in part from fear of disrupting what they know works — and instead start making many discoordinated tiny “improvements” which because they do not come from a singular focus and plan, actually make the product worse. At the same time, since their market is not expanding, they find ways to reduce cost so their new wider margins can take over the profit creation that they formerly received from an expanding market. This is why over time every product gets cheaper and more ornate, but does less well.

Right now, it seems like our internet wunderkind — Google, Apple, Twitter, Facebook and Amazon — are on top of the world. Millennials love their products and use them regularly. Their stocks trade highly. But as with all markets, the price is set by what people are willing to pay for something, and if that is based on illusion, it stays strong until right before it collapses.

Google has some obvious weaknesses. Its ad revenue per page has been declining for years because the internet is now coated in ads, and very few people on the internet actually buy anything. This has caused sites to become clickbait in order to draw in enough traffic to get a decent income from the lower-paying ads they now run; this in turn causes a concentration of traffic on relatively few sites. That puts us right back in the place where we were with old media where six big companies ran the show, and this has decreased the value of the internet as a news source.

Facebook wallows in weakness as well. It has tons of users because people can access it from at phones or on the job. The problem is that these people, beyond a few product categories, do not represent consumers. They are there to screw around. As a result, while Facebook and other social media have many users, they do not have many buyers. It’s not even clear that ads on these sites attract eyes from people who want to buy the products, which is why the ads are getting more random and more frequent, becoming a genteel form of spam. Twitter suffers the same problem.

Amazon similarly seems healthy on the outside but has deep problems within. It has a captive audience of millennials who buy products through it, but no longer has the advantage of being tax-free or even cheap. It is relying on convenience alone to sell products, and thus like many trends, it is running its course. Its improvements have essentially made it into a less unruly eBay, since it now has thousands of merchants and millions of individuals selling used products, but its market remains mostly entertainment products. As those wane, so does Amazon.

We have all heard of the miracle of Apple, but this is a company with a long history of having one good idea per decade and then declining growth. This occurs because the Apple model is based on hype: getting a whole bunch of people excited to spend credit and welfare money on trendy products. Over time, these products decline in cost and quality and the excitement moves on, as it did with the Macintosh in the 90s and the aging Apple PCs in the late 80s.

All of these products exist in cycles of hype. The cell phone was the “next big thing,” so the entirely industry reconfigured itself around selling apps and online games. But hype dies as its newness fades and its utility becomes revealed as relatively low. Government pumps the economy by dumping money on the theoretically impoverished, who can be counted on to spend it on gadgets and entertainment as the last sixty years of welfare spending show. This keeps the hype alive, but also makes these companies fragile.

Companies with declining futures tend to change audiences. In America and Europe, new products gain acceptance when the more cutting-edge users in the upper half of the middle classes adopt them. This group values its time intensely, and so is also the first to move on to what it perceives as better technologies or simply to flee from dying technologies. At that point, businesses try to find a new and easier-to-acquire audience, and so start moving down the socioeconomic ladder. This is how MySpace went from a place filled with college students to one cluttered with older people, and finally, became the general public and drove out the power users and upper half of middle class people. It is easier to acquire less discerning audiences, but it marks a decline in the product because less discerning buyers have less loyalty to brand and cannot be counted on to make the kind of analytical buying choices that advertising targets.

For these firms to get ahead, they would have to markedly improve their products. There’s not much chance of that once a company employs tens of thousands. Instead, they spread out and expand into as many areas as possible, adulterating their original focus.

The last two decades have shown America and Europe increasingly reliant on this technology-hype-welfare cycle. It has also been used to justify importing more H1-B labor, despite the fact that programming “by the pound” contributes to the bloat. Like our dying societies, these firms are built on hype and cannot improve, and instead keep the illusion afloat however they have to, knowing that someday — coming sooner than ever before — a collapse will take them into darkness.