I root for neither Vladimir Putin’s Russian military, nor George Steinbrenner’s New York Yankees, nor Nick Sabin’s professional football team, The Alabama Crimson Tide. As a logical and generally unengaged observer of all three entities, I accept as fundamental logic that all three probably will succeed at winning their assigned gladiatorial conflicts. They may well all three possess the proximate appeal one would assign to pile of feces too large to successfully flush down a toilet. You may well be royally sick of all three of them. Neither of these factors matters. All three are too big to fail, too well funded to go broke. Like the primitive Homo Erectus, all three will rape and club the majority of their opponents into extinction.
People have opinions that differ from mine concerning all three. They may even possess an occasional fact. The Braves, not the Yankees, won last year’s World Series. Georgia’s Football Mafia, not Tuscaloosa, Alabama’s, won last year’s CFP. The Ukraine has won a few impressive tactical victories against the Post-Soviet Russian grinder. Two of these three logical anomalies make for wagerable differences in perception. They are the sort of thing that make marathons and dog fights more watchable. The third anomaly on the list makes The Ukrainian Debacle a human tragedy.
Human beings are not always naturally inclined to override their emotions with a realistic estimate based upon experiential observed probabilities. Anyone sad enough to author a fan blog about The Washington Wizards of the NBA is leading with his heart while his head wanders the aimless wastes along with President Biden’s. A Confederate General once inspired his contemporaries to comment that he had the heart of a lion and the brain of a hare. This perhaps describes well the professional mercenaries now trapped in the urban boneyard known as Mariupol. When the capture and probable merking of Coach Red Pill represents your primary success in battle, then it could be coldly observed that the battle goes not well.
Several people born in The Southern United States have asked themselves the impossible hypothetical. “What if The CSA had won The War of Northern Aggression?” It’s fun as an intellectual exercise and people both North and South of The Mason-Dixon Line have used it as intellectual grist for the polemical mill. Harry Turtledove morally masturbating to the proposal that Dixie would set up death camps to solve its self-inflicted Walmarttavion Problems offers us one extreme example. Pro-Southern hypotheticals claiming the North would side with Hitler (his real-world, documented death camps notwithstanding) in World War II are simply the opposite side of Turtledove’s badly debased mental Internet Porn. This may murder the literary genre of Historical Fiction, but only Incel-Grade Spergs get harmed in the real world.
What happens when people let emotion and hatred blind them to realities involving live, ongoing conflict? Things could get far worse than the Faceborg narrative of Ukrainian flags on Zuckerface pages. Stinger and Javelin missiles get smuggled into the battle space and unescorted armor starts getting destroyed on live YouTube podcasts. The Russians back up the armored vehicles with massive artillery strikes to prep their objectives. If you can’t find that Javelin Crew, you do what you do when you can’t find the needle in the haystack. Just demolish or burn the haystack. There’s your needle! The negative externality to this involves the mulchification of civilians that can’t escape before the explosive metal rainfall commences.
The Larping Neo-Cons cannot let this massacre of Ukrainians stand! Now German artillery and surplus Warsaw Pact T-72s from Poland enter the fray. It’s now Vladimir Putin’s move in the guts-poker game. The Russian Air Force hasn’t really suited up and donned their spikes yet. Let the miracles of modern NATO counter-battery detection and fire beget skies that buzz with weaponized demons. PAC-3s and SHORAD batteries can counter this move. Hope can be kept alive in The Ukraine.
President Putin then receives a much calmer, more professional briefing on his chemical weapons and tactical nuclear capabilities. The hypersonic larping ends, and the proven and mobile short-range missiles with nuclear warheads at least deploy to theater area support area in Belarus. Just how effective were Patriot Missiles when they attempted to counter SCUD attacks in Operation Desert Storm? They weren’t 100%. Neither is Iron Dome. If enough tactical nukes fly from the trebuchets, then some of them will both hit and detonate.
Then, the Neo-Con Larp Factory will run short of copium in synonymy with the American farmers running short of potash. Then we realize that the Russian military is like the Northern Army in The American Civil War. Lee, Jackson, Forrest, and Mosby can win the brilliant tactical victories. General Grant can urinate away the lives of his PFCs at Cold Harbor and in The Petersburg Crater. The Confederates can then be forced to bow to the black pill of inevitability at Appomattox Courthouse. So it will be for the Ukrainians without the massive investment in currency, espionage, economic sanctions, hostile diplomacy, and military equipment by NATO. When I say NATO, read The United States of America.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby declined to detail items in the upcoming weapons package during a briefing at the Defense Department, citing security concerns. Kirby said that the makeup of previous U.S. security packages comes “directly out of multiple conversations with the Ukrainians.”
Among the weapons included in the $800 million security package announced April 13 were 18 howitzer artillery systems, the first known heavy artillery platforms of that caliber to be transferred to Ukrainian forces. The Pentagon also committed 40,000 artillery rounds, from both Army and Marine Corps stockpiles.
The Ukrainian Army faces an invasion as crushing as Sherman’s March To The Sea. To glean wisdom from a Stone Temple Pilots song: throw a tack on the road, stop the meatplow. People can admire the courage of Ukraine in the face of probabilistic inevitability all they want. It will prolong the conflict no more than Southern admiration of Robert E. Lee. Only China or the combined power of Amerika’s Neo-Con empire can go toe-to-toe with The Russian military. When push comes to nuclear shove, say your prayers that neither one will. The Ukraine was done the day Vladimir Putin ordered his army to cross the border.