Houston, we have a problem. A worse problem than having Sheila Jackson Lee represent your fair city in Congress. This problem relates to how she can wonder where on Mars US astronauts put the flag and still keep getting reelected. Her being dumb is less problematic than a horde of gimmedat-seekers not caring how stupid she is as long the money keeps coming their way. If you want to know who is really stupid, take a look at all the people being born in the modern world.
The world’s IQ is currently in decline. Maybe its a slow decline, maybe its not in your neck of the woods. But it’s only five o’clock somewhere if the people in that locale are smart enough to read their watches or iPhones. That is increasingly debatable. With Dr. Richwine successfully burned at the stake as a sacrifice to the Cucks and the SJW Gods, perhaps we can get past chic outrage and actually lay out just how damn dumb it is really getting out there.
1. The population-weighted cross-national mean IQ-score is 89.03, with SD of 12.89, for 123 nations. There are roughly 550,000 individuals in the included samples.
2. The countries of Latvia and Belarus are new in the dataset and are included in the geographic means, but Latvia still has poor data quality.
3. At the level of records (source), my re-estimated (DB) and Richard’s original (L&V) data give:
DB: M=85.58; SD=13.73; N=358
L&V: M=85.36; SD=12.69; N=315
They are highly similar. The mean difference was estimated for 314 records as only 1.06, with a SD of 5.84. 75% of the re-estimated IQs are within this SD.
4. But I would also emphasize that there are some other re-estimated scores which more than 15 IQ-scores away from Richard’s and the reason for this has to be determined urgently. Especially scores from Coloured Progressive Matrices (the new ones) are sometimes implausible.
So, it is overall important for me to say that this is a work in progress and the dataset is more suitable to find global patterns rather than the exact IQs of single nations.
So let’s paint a picture of this for people who don’t speak the Sperg Tongue of Statistics on a regular basis.
How does this statistical model compare to what has been rigorously measured in the field? Here’s what has been measured about 15 years ago in the field.
These numbers came from a work carried out from 2002 to 2006 by Richard Lynn, a British Professor of Psychology, and Tatu Vanhanen, a Finnish Professor of Political Science, who conducted IQ studies in more than 80 countries.
This gives us a slightly more nuanced view than the model. Countries can certainly get plenty dumb, but nobody produces a population of IQ 120 for example.
To get a sense of why Lynn-Verhanen is a bad news story, let’s juxtapose it against the predictive model.
So the obvious question then becomes which nations are having kids. Are they the smart ones or the dumb ones? The New Scientist tells us the following:
Could the population bomb be about to go off in the most unexpected way? Rather than a Malthusian meltdown, could we instead be on the verge of a demographic implosion?
To find out how and why, go to Japan, where a recent survey found that people are giving up on sex. Despite a life expectancy of 85 and rising, the number of Japanese is falling thanks to a fertility rate of just 1.4 children per woman, and a reported epidemic of virginity. The population, it seems, are too busy (and too shy) to procreate.
It’s catching. Half the world’s nations have fertility rates below the replacement level of just over two children per woman. Countries across Europe and the Far East are teetering on a demographic cliff, with rates below 1.5. On recent trends, Germany and Italy could see their populations halve within the next 60 years.
These are predominantly the White and South-East Asian Cultures. Where are children still being rapidly procreated? Here’s where according to The New Scientist.
For now, the world’s population continues to rise. From today’s 7.4 billion people, we might reach 9 billion or so, mostly because of high fertility in Africa. The UN predicts a continuing upward trend, with population reaching around 11.2 billion in 2100. But this seems unlikely. After hitting the demographic doldrums, no country yet has seen its fertility recover. Many demographers expect a global crash to be under way by 2076.
Again, a picture is worth a thousand words. Here are two that will clue you in on where our next generational cohort is being born exactly.
Now the Liberal Arts Whiner would ask “But what does all this mean?”
Fair question and here’s your answer. We start by marrying out two data sets that track IQ by nation. These two data sets had a total of 182 countries that had both IQ and TFR data. Split these into deciles, and we can compare the smartest 18 countries (Decile 1) to the dumbest 18 countries (Decile 10) with regared to both IQ and Birthrate. The chart below shows us what we learn.
1) TFR and IQ are negatively correlated. (TFR = -0.0742(IQ) + 8.9213). It intercepts the Population Replacement TFR (2.10) at IQ = 91.93. The 51 highest IQ nations amongst those that had measured both IQ and TFR could be predicted to be below TFR. Only 4 statistical outlier nations amongst the 51 highest were above 2.10.
2) 131 Nations were below the 91.93 IQ threshold. Of those, only 90 had a TFR above replacement. This is a replacement rate of 70%. (90/131).
This obviously suggests that our future involves a continued decline in global IQ. Eventually, we will have to encourage the smarter people of the world to place a bet on the future. It belongs to the people who bother to show up, and those putting a hand in the air don’t seem to bring much to the table. Without a change in the attitudes of intelligent people towards reproducing, the dumb shall truly inherit the Earth.