Amerika

Science tells us the darndest things. Do you know what the overdetermining driver of terrestrial climate is? According to Yan et al., 2017, it could even be the sun. More important than even Bromine entrained in antarctic sea ice!
The smart guys explain below.

Morpho- and hydrodynamic variations seem to coincide with northern hemispheric solar forcing. The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) until about 1270 CE displays generally moist and warm climate conditions with minor fluctuations [stability], likely in response to variations in summer monsoon intensity. The three-partite period of the Little Ice Age (LIA), shows hydrologically unstable conditions between 1350 and 1530 CE with remarkably colder periods, assigned to a prolonged seasonal ice cover. … Seasonal freezing periods in excess of the average time of frozen water bodies also occurred in periods of the well-known grand solar minima…

So when the sun is hot, you better bring your gatorade. My gawd! We’ve just solved the mysteries of climate change. I want my Michael Mann grant. But wait, JPW. Could it have been vulcanism? Tejedor et al., 2017 kicked the tires on that jalopy and it wouldn’t crank.

The new IR2Tmax reconstruction is spatially representative for the Iberian Peninsula and captures the full range of past Iberian Range temperature variability. Reconstructed long-term temperature variations match reasonably
well with solar irradiance changes since warm and cold phases correspond with high and low solar activity, respectively. In addition, some annual temperature downturns coincide with volcanic eruptions with a 3-year lag.

So a big enough volcano can temporarily cool the climate. But only temporarily. Then, you know, it’s like part of a Solar System or something. And wouldn’t you know it?…There’s a Russian connection.

Astronomer Milutin Milankovitch developed the mathematical formulas upon which these orbital variations are based. He hypothesized that when some parts of the cyclic variations are combined and occur at the same time, they are responsible for major changes in the earth’s climate (even ice ages). Milankovitch estimated climatic fluctuations over the last 450,000 years and described cold and warm periods. Though he did his work in the first half of the 20th century, Milankovich’s results weren’t proven until the 1970s. A 1976 study, published in the journal Science examined deep-sea sediment cores and found that Milankovitch’s theory corresponded to periods of climate change. Indeed, ice ages had occurred when the earth was going through different stages of orbital variation.

And the Evil Erstwhile Warsaw Pact Hackers^* weren’t done with The First Church of Climate Scientology quite yet. According to
Yavor Chapanov, Cyril Ron and Jan Vondrak, 2017, we learn the following.

The solar activity affects all surface geosystems, including weather and climate indices, winds, rains, snow covers, mean sea level, river streamflows and other hydrological cycles. The mean sea level and polar ice changes cause common variations of the principal moments of inertia and Earth rotation with decadal, centennial and millennial periods.

So what? Fair question. Here goes…

A good agreement exists between the decadal cycles of LOD, MSL, climate and solar indices whose periods are between 12-13, 14-16, 16-18 and 28-33 years. The new linear models of the decadal common Earth and solar cycles may help for long term forecasts of many global and local changes.

Thus the variability of the Sun and the Earth’s mechanical interactions therewith is a much better predictor of hot air than the concentrations of trace GHGs in the terrestrial atmosphere. That would imply the climate gets predominantly and overwhelmingly forced by the ultimate source of all energy that ever exists on Earth. Heavy dope Man, heavy-hitting dope.

So we now go to relevance. Why would this pee in the Cheerios of the Climate Scientology Cult of AGW? Well, one of the noteworthy “achievements” of Mann, et al. 1999, was the supposed erasure of The Medieval Warming Period. The essential claim was that Modern, industrial conditions introduced climate forcings that directly overwhelmed traditional astronomical forcings. Only by tuning down the signal of this prior climactic epoch, could Mann totally posit his “Hockey Stick” graph in a non-comedic setting. Hence, he was in direct contradiction to the current state of knowledge regarding Solar Physiscs.

So is Bill Nye the Science Guy on this stuff? Not if Dolph Lundgren has better STEM credentials. The Economist gives us a non-technical take on the last 15 years.

BETWEEN 1998 and 2013, the Earth’s surface temperature rose at a rate of 0.04°C a decade, far slower than the 0.18°C increase in the 1990s. Meanwhile, emissions of carbon dioxide (which would be expected to push temperatures up) rose uninterruptedly. This pause in warming has raised doubts in the public mind about climate change. A few sceptics say flatly that global warming has stopped. Others argue that scientists’ understanding of the climate is so flawed that their judgments about it cannot be accepted with any confidence.

I don’t believe that Climate Scientologists fail to comprehend the climate. I believe they’ve rolled to disbelieve like a Second Level Paladin who knows he can’t outrun the encroaching Black Pudding of hate truth. Why would this be religious dogma rather than scientific fair game? It specifically goes back to Mann’s hypothesis. On it’s surface, the Mann Hypothesis that industrial activity boosts the level of anthropogenic forcing beyond the order of magnitude of solar forcing is a fair place for the referee to draw a mark in the ground and the skeptics and the believers to pack down.

Then we get to the normative loading. For people who believe modern industrial capitalism is inherently malignant Mann, et al. 1999 is Christmas in August and has nothing to do with any scientific data whatsoever. For people seeking to redistribute^** resources from more industrialized societies to subsidize third and fourth world dysfunction pits at taxpayer expense, this is an awesome fulcrum.

The Mann Hypothesis, like his tree ring measures necessary to the construction of The Hockey Stick Curve, are a proxy. The AGW Hypothesis has regrettably become a proxy for the question of whether morality demands the caring and sensitive person to hate The USA as a ethical duty. Swallow the Mann hypothesis like a fish hook, and you can get totally reeled into believing that America; like Carthage, must be destroyed. When you attempt to hijack scientific inquiry to posit the question you really want to ask without having to endure the potential social backlash of bluntly just asking it, Captain Obvious is never your friend. Perhaps one more thing we learn about the Solar System is that there will always be evil under the sun.

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^* — They’re all commies if they practice denialism.

Tags: AGW, climate change, global warming, hockey stick