Amerika

Observation beats theory based on logic itself. Deductive logic deduces from its previous conclusions and inverts itself by making its methods into goals, losing sight of its own intent, why its goals were important, and how to apply its methods.

Ancient ways beat modern models with the Farmer’s Almanac, for example, which predicts seasonal weather more accurately than the experts.

The Farmers’ Almanac uses a proprietary and secret formula that its editors claim is based on sunspot activity, the moon’s tidal action, planetary positions and historical weather patterns. The method, however, does not use real-time atmospheric data or modern forecasting models.

Correlation is not causation, but noticing the overlap and interaction between all correlative factors gives a clearer picture of how things work. Not only that, but incorporating the whole of the system into a systems theory analysis gives a better picture than the narrow silo of (for example) weather alone.

Tags: deductive logic, forecasting, prediction, systems theory