Amerika

Unexpected Results Versus Obvious Conclusions

I hereby promulgate JPW’s Law of Economics: That which is “unexpected” is usually pretty darn “obvious.” It is only “unexpected” to those who strain to deny reality. It is “obvious” to those who live entrained in the current prevailing state of reality and have chosen to accept that reality for what it is.

In order to better comprehend JPW’s Iron Law of Economics here, let us define our terms. “Unexpected” describes any state or condition where Team Lefty winds up experiencing an economic result that is at odds with what they want or what their ideology orders them to believe would occur. “Obvious” is pretty much what your common sense and fundamental intuition tell you should happen. They tell it to you so strongly that no cognitive energy is required to figure it out. “Unexpected” and “Obvious” are not always inversely correlated. However, where leftist ideology is an attempt to rewrite the laws of nature, “Unexpected” and “Obvious” will pretty much always diverge. This is currently happening in South African agriculture.

SA has plunged into a recession with a surprise 0.7% contraction in the second quarter of the year. “We are in recession. We reported a contraction in the first quarter even with revisions and now in the second quarter with a fall of 0.7%, we are in recession,” statistician-general Risenga Maluleke said in Pretoria on Tuesday. This is despite expectations from many economists that SA would narrowly miss a recession. The Bloomberg consensus was 0.6% growth.

There are several aspects of this situation that require leftists to find the decline in South Africa’s economic decline to be “unexpected.”

  1. South Africa is currently ruled by the ANC. This party is supposed to be Africa’s contribution to Fukayama’s End of History. They have a nice liberal Democracy. The reasons for conflict are over and now everybody gets a pony. This brings us directly to the problems that South African agriculture is seriously suffering from.

    A lot of the people expecting the pony they were promised once Nelson Mandela underwent post-religious apotheosis were people who can’t feed or care for ponies, have only a basic idea of how they breed, and most importantly; have no land to stable them when not using them to virtue signal with their like-minded friends. “Unexpectedly” nobody voluntarily donated all the land and ponies that were required.

  2. There was only one logical way to build Wakanda’s Shangri-la. They would redistribute all cute, happy ponies and nobody would mind in the least. “Unexpectedly” the predominantly white, rural people having their ponies rustled demanded at least fair market value in exchange for the property. This became a problem because the people who didn’t have ponies typically didn’t have jobs or big piles of swag either.

    Then, there were the “unimaginable” problems involved when the pony-owners got all up in the legal system with their bourgeois property rights and rule of law rap. So the ANC bravely abolished outmoded moral concerns like “Thou Shalt Not Steal.” This was amended to read “Excepting cases where the ‘It’s Constitutional, B!tches!’ Clause applies.” Once the law had been amended, everyone should have been glad to fork over their land and all that it produces because Democracy.

  3. The reaction of the suppossed “White Allies” to theft being made constitutional. “Amazingly,” they still weren’t impressed. They apparently downed tools and walked. Fallow fields are famously unproductive.

    The agricultural sector was the worst performer once again, falling 29.2% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised, following a plunge in the first quarter of 2018, Investec said. Statistics SA said: “The decrease was mainly because of a drop in the production of field crops and horticultural products”.

At this point the “Obvious” stuff begins to kick in.

  1. Nobody cares jack-shite about commonly held property. They rape it for what it is worth and perform maintenance on behalf of the commonweal at gunpoint only. A more intellectualized version of this is found in The Tragedy of The Commons.
  2. Things that nobody cares about except for their temporary exploitability, tend to perform rather poorly. One of the saddest aspects of Hardin’s dilemma is the extent to which commonly held resources quickly underperform. Like at a productivity rate of -29.2% This is indicative of two things.
    1. The quality declines in synonymy with the ownership value of the asset. A commonly held asset has no ownership value. Only a brief time lag for information dissemination prevents the value of the commonly held asset from going to zero.
    2. The quality of an asset is inversely proportional to the volatility of its ownership. Not many things add volatility to an asset quite like the ownership not being established and its utilization patterns changing every time they hold another stupid election. Unconstrained Democracy destroys productivity and therefore degrades every asset held under its domain.

    We can now commit some pretty basic mathematics and project the Time to Zimbabweification for South African Agriculture. Assuming a constant annual decline of 30% in the sector until enough idiots have died for nobody to bother anymore, we can generate an Unlearning Curve that follows below.

    Here the Y-Axis represents the percentage of current productivity achieved by South African Agriculture. The X-Axis represents the years in the future. The Curve makes the generous assumption that the agricultural decline will work like an Andelohr Curve for lost learning rather than a declining exponential function. We can now get over things being “unexpected” and get down to the stuff that is righteously “obvious”.

    1. The beatings will continue until moral improves. That will happen when the whites leave South Africa or the ANC resigns.
    2. The results of this stupid greed on the part of The ANC will be mass emigration and serious starvation. Like Venezuela, the calories will not just be burned; they will be Holodomored.
    3. The UN, the WTO, Doctors without Borders, et al., will consider all of this obviously predictable suckage to be a massive human rights catastrophe.

    They will have caused it; we the Amerikan Taxpayers will somehow be punished. Because it is increasingly “obvious” that we are about the only ones left with the foresight, means and ability to solve all the “unexpectedly” poor luck brought on by the delusions of retarded leftist ideologues.

    In the meantime, everyone suffers. The people of South Africa will starve. The former pioneers of South Africa will be exterminated. Money that could have gone to great things — museums, symphonies, inventions, space exploration — will instead go toward fixing yet another plan that was obviously not going to work.

    When in the fornication will we ever sack the hell up and tell these moochers NO in clear and unambiguous language? If not for our own protection, maybe for theirs, we can justify turning away from these feel-good activities that invariably and without exception end in tears.

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